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BQ 3A News > Blog > UK > The harmful industry of predicting the demise of popes – a historical past
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The harmful industry of predicting the demise of popes – a historical past

May 7, 2025
The harmful industry of predicting the demise of popes – a historical past
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Michel de Nostredame (1503-66), higher referred to as Nostradamus, is regularly hailed as one of the a hit prophets of all time. Mentioned to have foreseen primary global occasions from the upward push of Hitler to COVID, the Sixteenth-century astrologer was once lately credited with predicting Pope Francis’s demise – and what would occur subsequent.

‘Throughout the demise of an overly previous Pontiff

A Roman of fine age will probably be elected.

Of him it’ll be mentioned that he weakens his seat

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However lengthy will he sit down in biting process.

Like all of the quatrains in Nostradamus’s number of prophecies, Les Prophéties (1555-68), this one is as enigmatic as it’s versatile. Brief, candy and decontextualised, his prophetic poems really feel undying, and it’s deliciously pleasant to recognise a real-world correlation. The issue is that his prophecies are so obscure that they may be able to be connected to any choice of occasions – or previous Pontiffs.

Nostradamus’s “dark and cryptic” language was once intentional. If he were extra specific, no longer simplest his occupation, however most likely even his existence, could have been in danger.

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A lot of his prophecies involved the upward push and fall of the good and the great, and political prophecy was once a high-risk industry. In historic Rome, astrologers were expelled from the town for forecasting the demise of emperors, and Renaissance leaders have been no much less paranoid. To steer clear of “scandalising and upsetting”, Nostradamus selected to veil his true which means.

This was once no longer only a topic of self-preservation, but in addition a option to difficult to understand politically explosive data. Claiming to grasp when a civic or church chief may die was once treasured intelligence. This made astrology a key instrument of Renaissance spy-craft, but in addition a perilous weapon that had to be monitored and controlled.

Astrology, politics and the papal courtroom

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As a device that promised to forecast plagues, herbal failures, conflict, or even the economic system, astrology was once a logical hobby for Renaissance rulers.

Universities taught their scholars easy methods to make those predictions, and for some fortunate graduates this resulted in a task in a royal, princely, and even papal courtroom. Right here their horoscopes may tell political decision-making and bring potent astrological propaganda.

Diagram of a horoscope

A horoscope for the founding of St. Peter’s Basilica within the Vatican in April 1506, forged through the astrologer Luca Gaurico. Luca Gaurico (1552).
Tractatus Astrologicus

In spite of the condemnations of theologians, many popes patronised astrologers and sought their steering.

Julius II (1443-1513) selected the beginning date for the development of Saint Peter’s Basilica in accordance with astrological suggest. Leo X (1475-1521) based a professorship in astrology at Rome’s first college, L. a. Sapienza. And Paul III (1468-1549), heeding the judgment of the astrologer Luca Gaurico, appointed his grandson a cardinal at simply 14.

In a length wherein popes may have a decisive have an effect on on global politics, hypothesis in regards to the well being of the pontiff was once rampant. Astrologers capitalised in this.

When Ludovico Sforza (1452-1508), de facto ruler of Milan, requested his astrologer to expect the demise of Blameless VIII, it was once not anything peculiar. The solution was once that the pope would die round August 10 1492, if no longer quicker. When Blameless died on July 25, Ludovico was once without a doubt happy. Because the historian Monica Azzolini has proven, he had consulted his astrologer within the hope the following pope could be extra supportive of his illegitimate regime.

Some popes requested astrologers about their very own deaths. However they didn’t find it irresistible such a lot when others did so – particularly when the forecasts have been made public. Even worse, such predictions regularly fed into Protestant propaganda.

Popes knew public predictions about their demise have been politically destabilising, to not point out humiliating. On the finish of 1559, the Index of Prohibited Books, a listing of books forbidden through the Roman Catholic Church, banned texts containing astrological “divinations” about “future contingent events”.

Previous that 12 months, simply as Pope Paul IV was once looking to disguise a major sickness from the general public, the sighting of a comet had resulted in popular hypothesis about his demise. Because the pope knew all too smartly, astrology can be a political legal responsibility.

Orazio Morandi and City VIII

Such regulation didn’t prevent astrologers from making political predictions, no longer least as a result of their purchasers by no means stopped asking. However an increasing number of those astrologers have been taking part in with hearth. Because the historian Brendan Dooley has proven, Orazio Morandi realized this the exhausting manner in 1630.

Painting of Pope Urban VII in red.

Morandi made predictions about Pope City VII.
Vatican Museums

Morandi was once an abbot on the monastery of Santa Prassede in Rome. He were practicing astrology for years, and he were cautious, framing his political forecasts in allusive language. However quickly he went too some distance.

In 1629, Morandi wrote an astrological statement on more than a few previous papacies, critiquing their flaws. When he got here to the current incumbent, City VIII (1568-1644), he no longer simplest predicted that his pro-French allies would break Italy, however that the pope himself would very quickly endure nice violence, then demise.

There are a number of astrological ways for predicting somebody’s demise. As above, astronomical phenomena like comets and eclipses may suggested hypothesis about an upcoming papal dying. However Morandi used the gold usual – a method known as “prorogation”. This required get right of entry to to the individual’s start chart, from which astrologers may establish the planets or luminaries that have been their “giver of life” and “giver of years”.

Other planets gave other lifespans. As an example, if the solar was once your “giver of years”, and it was once in a just right place to your horoscope, it’s possible you’ll be expecting to reside to 120. If the solar was once badly positioned, your existence expectancy may well be simply 19 years. Different portions of the horoscope may then regulate those figures.

Morandi known the solar as City’s existence giver. However the positions of the extra nefarious planets on his start chart intended he was once fortunate to have lived past the age of 7. In June 1630, Morandi concluded, a sun eclipse would seal the pope’s destiny.

Morandi’s prediction unfold broadly in clandestine circles, and it wasn’t lengthy till his prediction was once reported as truth. The professional-Spanish faction in Rome was once overjoyed. It was once even rumoured that Spanish and German cardinals had begun the lengthy adventure to Rome for a brand new conclave.

A zodiac chart from the 16th century

The earth surrounded through the planets, luminaries, and zodiac indicators (1708).
Andreas Cellarius, Harmonia Macrocosmica

Embarrassingly, City first realized of the prophecy no longer via his personal informants, however from the robust French prelate Cardinal Richelieu. Himself an avid believer in astrology, City was once very much disturbed. He had Morandi arrested and jailed. Throughout the trial, a tender guy known as Matteo, servant to the present prior of Santa Prassede, was once interrogated and tortured. Morandi himself quickly died in jail below suspicious instances.

However City lived on. The following 12 months, he decreed it punishable through demise to expect “the life or death of the sitting Roman Pontiff, including his blood relatives to the third degree inclusive”.

Creating a occupation in political forecasting was once – and is – dangerous. However astrologers have been bold and knew their efforts could be smartly remunerated. Predicting the demise of a pope may will let you briefly construct a public profile, increasing your online business. However after 1630, it was once a menace many astrologers have been not keen to take.

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