During the last few years, strengthen for Welsh independence has grown in techniques no longer observed earlier than. A contemporary ballot commissioned by means of YesCymru, a pro-independence marketing campaign staff, discovered that 41% of people that’ve made up their minds at the factor would now vote in favour of independence.
The hanging discovering is that the quantity jumps to 72% amongst 25-to-34 12 months olds. In the meantime older generations, specifically the ones elderly 65 and up, stay firmly within the “no” camp, with 80% adverse.
This does appear a large shift in public temper. However does it imply Wales is changing into extra nationalist? Now not precisely.
The connection between constitutional attitudes and nationalism is difficult, as analysis on my own and co-workers presentations. Many of us again independence for causes that experience much less to do with feeling strongly Welsh or waving flags, and extra to do with short of higher decision-making nearer to house.
Right through 2021, as a part of a broader analysis mission on Welsh folks’s perspectives at the COVID pandemic and vaccination, we spoke to folks from other ages, backgrounds and places. Some had been vaccinated, others weren’t. Some had voted in elections whilst others hadn’t voted in years, if ever.
Many of us we talked to felt the Welsh authorities had executed a greater task than Westminster at dealing with the pandemic. They noticed the choices made in Wales – like preserving stricter laws in position when England comfy theirs – as extra smart, extra being concerned, and extra in step with what they in my opinion sought after from a central authority. And with that got here a self belief that Wales may just care for much more regulate over its personal affairs.
Traditionally, Welsh nationalism used to be tightly connected to the Welsh language and tradition. Self-government used to be all the time part of the dialog, however no longer essentially the principle driving force. That began converting within the past due twentieth century.
In 1979, Wales voted towards devolution. In 1997, it narrowly voted in favour. After that, issues slowly started to shift. And now, greater than 25 years into devolution, strengthen for some type of self-government is the mainstream view. Independence is now not this sort of fringe thought.
Curiously, more youthful generations are way more open to it – and lots of of them aren’t what you’d generally call to mind as nationalists. They won’t talk Welsh or see themselves as “political” within the conventional sense. Their strengthen frequently comes from sensible issues in regards to the economic system, democracy and the way choices are made.
Exterior occasions like Brexit have obviously performed a job. If truth be told, the YesCymru marketing campaign used to be shaped simply earlier than the EU referendum in 2016. Independence strengthen surged afterwards, particularly amongst Stay citizens.
Many noticed the Brexit fallout, in addition to austerity, as evidence that Westminster didn’t mirror their values or priorities. This confirmed how disruptive occasions can reshape the way in which folks see their position inside the United Kingdom.
Independence with out nationalism?
Probably the most extra sudden findings in our analysis – echoed within the 2025 polling – is that strengthen for independence doesn’t all the time come from people who find themselves politically engaged or pro-devolution. If truth be told, some strengthen got here from individuals who hadn’t voted in years, or felt utterly disenchanted with the political device.
They expressed their strengthen for independence via statements like: “They [the Welsh government] all need to go, but if I pay tax in Wales I want it to stay in Wales and be spent here.”
We additionally discovered numerous folks sitting at the fence. They weren’t towards independence, however they’d large questions on it. Wouldn’t it imply isolation? Wouldn’t it result in extra department?
One individual informed us: “I’m a little bit nationalistic, but I didn’t want the UK to leave the EU. So why would I want Wales to leave the UK?” Some other stated: “I don’t believe in borders, but I do think the Welsh government should run things.”
A march in strengthen of Welsh independence in October 2022.
Mark Lewis/Alamy
Those aren’t black-and-white perspectives. Folks’s emotions about independence – and nationalism – are frequently stuffed with contradictions. And this displays the broader fact that odd affairs of state are frequently messy. Maximum folks don’t are living within the extremes, and it is a excellent factor.
What’s additionally price noting is that nationalism takes many bureaucracy. Some individuals who strongly oppose Welsh independence achieve this from an overly rightwing populist-nationalist point of view, the place calls to abolish the Senedd (Welsh parliament) sit down along calls for for onerous borders and no more immigration. So, the idea that “independence equals nationalism” isn’t all the time true – and neither is the opposite.
May just independence in reality occur?
Wales isn’t on my own in debating large questions on its long term. In puts equivalent to Scotland, Catalonia and Flanders, political and financial crises can gas actions for independence. In some of these circumstances, accept as true with in central authorities and a want for extra native fiscal regulate have performed a significant position.
For Wales, the query frequently comes again to the economic system. Whilst religion in Wales’s skill to control is rising, many nonetheless concern whether or not an impartial Wales may just stand by itself financially. And for numerous unsure citizens, that is still the sticking level. Because of this, granting Wales extra powers via devolution may do extra to stave off calls for for independence than the rest.
However the dialog is transferring. Enhance for independence is now not with reference to nationalist grievances. It’s about how folks need to be ruled, and about accept as true with and responsiveness.
So, does supporting Welsh independence make you a nationalist? Now not essentially. For lots of, it’s no longer about nationalism in any respect.
